Kasatka Research LLC
I develop market hypotheses and test them against historical data through event studies, seasonality, volatility, and cross-asset research.
Selected reports
Original research pages
BTC · 900 days post halving
06 OCT 2026 · Cycle study
Columbus Day · 2026 price action
13 OCT 2026 · Event study
Columbus Day · Historical scorecard
13 OCT 2026 · Historical outcomes
Columbus Day · Return & risk
13 OCT 2026 · Return and drawdown study
October confluence · Day 905
11 OCT 2026 · Cycle timing
October confluence · Midterm October
11 OCT 2026 · Seasonality
Original research pages. Select a report to read it at full size. Dates and findings belong to each report’s original publication.
Research Index
Backtests, event studies, cross-asset analysis, scenario models and market history.
73 of 73 topics
7 categoriesIntraday sessions & weekend patternsTopics 01–1313 topics
- 01
Bitcoin U.S.-open fade
morning strength followed by selling around 9:30–10:30 a.m. New York.
- 02
Bitcoin Asia versus U.S. sessions
whether the sessions move inversely.
- 03
Bitcoin Monday performance
positive-close frequency and average returns.
- 04
Bitcoin/Ethereum Friday pumps
subsequent weekend and Monday drawdowns.
- 05
Bitcoin/Ethereum Sunday-night reversals
whether Sunday pumps or dumps reverse Monday.
- 06
Bitcoin weekend → Monday direction
continuation, reversal, and retracement.
- 07
Bitcoin Sunday/Thursday/Friday timing claims
specific intraday windows and weekly-low patterns.
- 08
Bitcoin red-week weekend bounce
Friday-night → Saturday-night performance after a red Monday–Thursday.
- 09
Bitcoin Saturday-low survival
whether the low holds through Sunday, Monday, and the following week.
- 10
XYZ100 weekend highs
whether weekend trading exceeds Friday’s high.
- 11
Hyperliquid Sunday-green signal
Monday opening and closing performance.
- 12
XYZ100 Sunday-night entry
buying at 10 p.m. Sunday and exiting at 10:30 a.m. Monday.
- 13
Brent weekend gaps
futures-gap behavior and Sunday perpetual follow-through.
Calendar effects and market cyclesTopics 14–3017 topics
- 14
Ethereum down-day frequency
across bull, bear, and sideways regimes.
- 15
Ethereum weekday performance
across all seven days.
- 16
Ethereum major bottoms by weekday.
- 17
Bitcoin monthly-open retests.
- 18
Bitcoin midmonth reversals.
- 19
Bitcoin 14th-of-month pivots
including the 13th → 14th transition.
- 20
Labor Day reversals.
- 21
Columbus Day
BTC, ETH, OTHERS, TOTAL2, and TOTAL3 before, during, and after; historical results and the 2026 update.
- 22
Harvest Moon
Bitcoin behavior around the event.
- 23
Full moons
Bitcoin returns leading up to, on, and after full moons.
- 24
Mercury retrograde
Bitcoin performance during and around retrograde periods.
- 25
Halloween
BTC, ETH, OTHERS, TOTAL2, and TOTAL3 surrounding October 31.
- 26
Midterm-year October seasonality.
- 27
Bitcoin 900 days after halving
subsequent one-, two-, and three-week performance.
- 28
Bitcoin three consecutive green months
following major bottoms.
- 29
Bitcoin cycle low → weekly higher high
timing, undercuts, retests, and subsequent returns.
- 30
October confluence
104 days after the bottom, 900+ days after halving, midterm October, and Columbus Day.
Macro releases, flows, and market eventsTopics 31–4515 topics
- 31
Bitcoin CPI-week behavior
Sunday–Tuesday positioning, market regimes, and hot/cold inflation surprises.
- 32
October CPI confluence
midterm timing, halving age, recovery age, and Fed-policy context.
- 33
Bitcoin FOMC week after a Monday pump.
- 34
Bitcoin FOMC week after a large prior-week drawdown
including the 7.4% decline setup.
- 35
Fed minutes
Bitcoin reactions to hawkish and dovish releases.
- 36
Bitcoin/Ethereum options expiries
crypto-native options and IBIT options.
- 37
Large USDC mints and exchange deposits
effects on ETH, SOL, ZEC, TOTAL2, TOTAL3, and OTHERS.
- 38
Money-market and Treasury inflow spikes
subsequent crypto, equity, gold, and Treasury performance.
- 39
WTI and Gulf hurricanes.
- 40
Nasdaq-100 shock days
large percentage declines and trillion-dollar market-value losses.
- 41
SOXX/SOX losing streaks
semiconductor rebounds and their durability.
- 42
TOKEN2049
crypto performance before, during, and after the conference.
- 43
Quantum/encryption-security headlines
Bitcoin and Ethereum reactions.
- 44
Economist/Barron’s magazine covers
their relationship with market turning points.
- 45
October 10, 2025 liquidation event
mechanics, asset damage, rebounds, and subsequent performance.
Price patterns, breadth, and positioningTopics 46–5712 topics
- 46
Repeated support/resistance taps
Bitcoin/Ethereum breakout probabilities by tap count.
- 47
Bitcoin/Ethereum breakout versus deviation
continuation and failure across trend and volatility conditions.
- 48
Bitcoin/Ethereum flush-wick retests
retest frequency, timing, depth, and bounce magnitude.
- 49
Top-50 crypto crash-day relative strength
whether resilience predicts later outperformance.
- 50
AERO spikes as local-top signals
for BTC, ETH, OTHERS, TOTAL2, and TOTAL3.
- 51
TIA spikes as local-top signals
for the same markets.
- 52
Perpetual listings
Hyperliquid/trade.xyz versus Binance, subsequent returns, and regime differences.
- 53
Bitcoin green → red weekly candles
topping behavior and next-week outcomes.
- 54
“The 10 best days”
BTC/ETH/SOL return concentration and removing the best or worst days.
- 55
Kalshi Bitcoin counter-signals
fading versus following prediction-market odds.
- 56
Kasatka Quant Oscillator
Bitcoin reversal signals, filters, and backtesting.
- 57
Breadth expansion
expansion at market highs versus after drawdowns.
Bitcoin volatilityTopics 58–603 topics
- 58
BVIV weekend shorts
Friday-night/Saturday-entry behavior.
- 59
BVIV weekend longs
Saturday noon → Monday 9:30 a.m. New York.
- 60
BVIV failure conditions
characteristics of losing weekends, Friday reference levels, Bitcoin direction, and broader trends.
Cross-asset relationships and historical comparisonsTopics 61–688 topics
- 61
VVV versus semiconductors
NVDA, SOXX, SMH, MRVL, AMD, and INTC, including relative-price pair charts.
- 62
Copper versus AI assets
NVDA, MAG7, QQQ/XYZ100, and Bitcoin.
- 63
Gold and Bitcoin versus Treasury yields
whether their bottoms align with rate turning points.
- 64
STRC versus Bitcoin
relationship, stress, and structural concerns.
- 65
Gold perpetual bottoms
comparison of major bottoms over two years.
- 66
Bitcoin January 2024 versus October 2026.
- 67
ZEC versus Bitcoin’s 2017 fractal.
- 68
Gold/Bitcoin/TLT chart comparison
the chart study; the additional rolling-correlation test remained unfinished.
Fundamental research, scenario models, and market historyTopics 69–735 topics
- 69
Anthropic S-1 analysis
financials, margins, compute commitments, dilution, valuation, and market implications.
- 70
Dream/Derive research
options infrastructure, routing, referral economics, and DRV value capture.
- 71
Bitcoin presidential-death shock model
scenario analysis across multiple horizons.
- 72
Japanese technical-analysis history
rice markets, candlesticks, doji, alternative charts, and Ichimoku.
- 73
U.S. macro report for October 12–15
inflation, real wages, Treasury yields, and market implications.
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Trading and Investing
Personal capital. Research put into practice.
Self-reported performance managing personal capital during 2017–2021, measured at peak. The annualized equivalent assumes no external cash flows. These figures describe peak performance, not the current portfolio value. No audited return series is presented.
Home Run Trades
Selected personal trades.
$BTC
July 2017–Infinity
$ETH
2017–2021
$LINK
2020
YASU
2020–2021
$SPELL
2021
Base season
2023
WIF
2024
SPX6900
2024–2025